Iran's Cognitive Science and Technology Foresight, Using Scenario Planning Approach
Subject Areas : General
habibollah
tataeian
1
(Allameh Tabataba’I University)
alimorteza
birang
2
alinaghi
khrazi
3
(Tehran University)
amir
nazemi
4
Keywords: Cognitive Science and Technology, Foresight, Scenario, Cognitive Neuroscience, Futurology,
Abstract :
In the near future cognitive science along with nano, bio and information technology (known as NBIC), can lead to a turning point and start a golden age by improving human's mental and physical performance. Based on this, in this research, by exploring foresight activities of other countries as well as indentifying the effective drivers of the future of cognitive science and technology, we are going to develope the future scenarios of the field in Iran in 2020 horizon. We use two methods inorder to identify the drivers: literature review and interviews with experts. Then, using a delphi survey the future uncertainties has been explored. Thus, the 4 scenarios which depict the future of cognitive science and technologies has been presented by using the 2 dimensional space resulting from the explored below uncertainties: the convergence and divergence of stakeholders and the engineering the mind approach against empowering the mind approach.
1. خزایی، س، جلیلوند، م، نصرالهی وسطی، ل.(1392). بررسی نظری روش تحلیل لایه‌ای علت‌ها در حوزه آینده‌پژوهی. مطالعات آینده‌پژوهی. 2(6)
2. خليل،ط. (1381) ، مديريت تكنولوژي (رمز موفقيت در رقابت و خلق ثروت)، تهران:انتشارات پيام متن وابسته به مركز تكنولوژي نيرو.
3. علامی، ع، قاسمی برقی، ر.(1391). ترسیم برنامه آینده دانشگاه علوم پزشکی: رویکرد سناریو پردازی. گام‌های توسعه در آموزش پزشکی، مجله مرکز مطالعات و توسعه آموزش پزشکی. 9(1). ص 101 تا 97.
4. کوثری، س.(1391). درآمدی بر رویکردها و تکنیک‌های سناریونویسی، مطالعات آینده‌پژوهی، 1(4). اول، ص 73-96.
5. لیام فهی، رابرت ام راندال، مترجم: مسعود منزوی (1392). یادگیری از آینده، سناریوهای آینده نگاری رقابتی، موسسه آموزش و تحقیقاتی صنایع دفاعی، مرکز آینده پژوهی علوم و فناوری های دفاعی.
6. متس لیندگرن، هانس بندهولد(1390). طراحی سناریو: پیوند بین آینده و راهبرد، موسسه آموزش و تحقیقاتی صنایع دفاعی
7. Bergman, J.-P. (2005). “Supporting Knowledge Creation and Sharing in the Early Phases of the Strategic Innovation Process”, Acta Universitatis Lappeenrantaesis 212, 180 p. 8. Berkhout, F., & Hertin, J. (2002). Foresight futures scenarios. Greener Management International, 2002(37), 37-52.
9. Bishop, P. (2001). A yardstick too far?. foresight, 3(3), 163-167.
10. Bradfield, R. Wright, G. Burt, G. Cairns, G. van der Heijden, K. (2005). “The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning,” Futures, Vol. 37, pp. 795-812.
11. Chermack, T. J. (2003). A theory of scenario planning, doctoral dissertation, faculty of the graduate school of the university of minnesota.
12. Chermack, T., J & Nimon, K. (2013). Drivers and outcomes of scenario planning: a canonical correlation analysis. European Journal of Training and Development, 37(9), 811-834.
13. Coates, F.J. (2000): Scenario Planning, in: Technological Forecasting and Social Change 65, 115-123.
14. Coyle, G.(2004). “Practical Strategy: Structured Tools and Techniques”, Glasgow: Pearson Education Ltd., 308 p. 15. Dammers, E. (2000). Leren van de toekomst; over de rol van scenario's bij strategische beleidsvorming.
16. Elkington, J., & Trisoglio, A. (1996). Developing realistic scenarios for the environment: Lessons from Brent Spar. Long Range Planning, 29(6), 762-769.
17. ETTE (2002): Focus in the Futureof Vocational Education and Training, Melbourne, 2002
18. Fahey, L., Randell, R. (1998): Learning from the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios, New York, in: Ratcliffe, J. (ed) (1999).
19. Georgantzas, N. C., & Acar, W. (1995). Scenario-driven planning: learning to manage strategic uncertainty. Praeger.
20. Godet, M. (1987). Scenarios and strategic management: Prospective et planification stratégique.
21. Godet, M., & Roubelat, F. (1996). Creating the future: the use and misuse of scenarios. Long range planning, 29(2), 164-171.
22. Götze, U. (1991). Szenario-Technik in der strategischen Unternehmensplanung. Wiesbaden: Dt. Univ.
23. Huss, W. R., & Honton, E. J. (1987). Scenario planning—what style should you use?. Long range planning, 20(4), 21-29.
24. Huss, W. R., & Honton, E. J. (1987). Scenario planning—what style should you use?. Long range planning, 20(4), 21-29.
25. Inayatullah, S. (1996). Methods and epistemologies in futures studies. The knowledge base of futures studies, 1, 186-203. 26. Inayatullah, S. (2009). Questioning scenarios. Journal of futures studies,13(3), 75-80.
27. Johnson G. & Scholes, K.(2002). “ Exploring Corporate Strategy”, Glasgow: Pearson Education Ltd, 585 p.
28. Kleiner, A. (1999): Scenario Practice, written for the Whole Earth Quarterly, to be published in 1999 and submitted in: http://stage.itp.nyu.edu/scenario/overview.html, 24.01.2004, 1999
29. Maleska, P. (1995): The Futures Field of Research, in: Futures Research Quarterly, vol. 11, no. 1, 1995 .
30. Martelli, A. (2001): Scenario Building and Scenario Planning: State of the Art and Prospects of Evolution, published on the summer 2001 issues of the Future Research Quarterly, in: http://www.antoniomartelli.com/html/articoli/scen_building.asp, 09.04.2004, 2001.
31. Mason, D. H. (1998). Scenario planning: Mapping the paths to the desired future. In L. Fahey & R. Randall, (Eds.), Learning From the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios,pp. 109-121. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
32. Mietzner, D., & Reger, G. (2005). Advantages and disadvantages of scenario approaches for strategic foresight. International Journal of Technology Intelligence and Planning, 1(2), 220-239.
33. Millett, S. M. (1988). How scenarios trigger strategic thinking. Long Range Planning, 21(5), 61-68.
34. Neilson, R. E., & Wagner, C. J. (2000). Strategic scenario planning at CA International. Knowledge Management Review, 12, 4-21.
35. Noonan, P. S., & Tenaglia, M. S. (1998). How information technology helps scenarios advance from consensus to decisiveness. Learning from the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios, 384-401.
36. Phelps, R., Chan, C., & Kapsalis, S. C. (2001). Does scenario planning affect performance? Two exploratory studies. Journal of Business Research,51(3), 223-232.
37. Piirainen, K., Kortelainen, S., Elfvengren, K. and Tuominen, M. (2006), ‘‘A framework for utilizing group support systems in scenario process’’, Proceedings of the Frontiers of E-business Research Conference, Tampere.
38. Piirainen,k., Kortelainen ,S., Elfvengren,K., Tuominen,M.(2010),”A scenario approach for assessing new business concepts”, Management Research Review ,Vol. 33 No. 6, pp. 635-655.
39. Porter, M. E. (1985). Competitive advantage: creating and sustaining superior performance. New york.
40. Ralston, B. & Wilson, I. 2006. “The Scenario-Planning Handbook: A Practitioner’s Guide to Developing and Using Scenarios to Direct Strategy in Today’s Uncertain Times,” Crawfordsville IN, Thomson/South-Western, 256 p.
41. Ratcliffe, J. (2000). Scenario building: a suitable method for strategic property planning?. Property Management, 18(2), 127-144.
42. Ratcliffe, J. (2003). Scenario planning: An evaluation of practice. Futures Research Quarterly, 19(4), 5-26.
43. Ringland, G., & SCHWARTZ, P. P. (1998). Scenario planning: managing for the future. John Wiley & Sons.
44. Robertson, J. (1980). The sane alternative. River Basin Publishing Company.
45. Schriefer, A. (1995). Getting the most out of scenarios: Advice from the experts. Planning Review, 23(5), 33-35.
46. Schwartz, P. (1996). The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World (Currency Doubleday, New York).
47. Shoemaker, P. J. H. (1995). Scenario planning: A tool for strategic thinking. Sloan Management Review 37(2), 25-40.
48. Shoemaker, P. J. H. (1998). Twenty common pitfalls in scenario planning. In L. Fahey & R. Randall, (Eds.), Learning From the Future: Competitive Foresight
49. Slaughter, R. (1995). The foresight principle. London: Adamantine.
50. Slaughter, R. (2000). Futures tools and techniques. Futures Study Centre.
51. Slaughter, R. A. (1996). The knowledge base of futures studies as an evolving process. Futures, 28(9), 799-812.
52. Sohail, I. (2002). Reductionism or layered complexity, the future of future studies. Futures, 34(3-4), 295-302.
53. Steinmüller, K. (1997). Grundlagen und Methoden der Zukunftsforschung: Szenarien, Delphi, Technikvorausschau. SFZ.
54. Tenaglia, M., & Noonan, P. (1992). Scenario-based strategic planning: A process for building top management consensus. Planning Review, 20(2), 12-19.
55. Van der Heijden, K. (2004). Can internally generated futures accelerate organizational learning?. Futures, 36(2), 145-159.
56. Van der Heijden, K. (2011). Scenarios: the art of strategic conversation. John Wiley & Sons.
57. Van Notten, P. W., Rotmans, J., Van Asselt, M. B., & Rothman, D. S. (2003). An updated scenario typology. Futures, 35(5), 423-443.
58. Varum, A and Melo,C. (2010). “Directions in scenario planning literature – A review of the past decades”.Futures 42, p.p 355–369.
59. Wack, P. (1985). Scenarios: The gentle art of re-perceiving, Harvard Business School. Unpublished manuscript.
60. Walsh,P.R.(2005). “environmental change by adding scenario planning to the strategy reformulation equation”.Guildford, UK Management Decision. Vol. 43 No. 1, pp. 113-122.
61. Warfield, J. (1996). An overview of futures methods. Artículos especializados. 62. Wilkinson, L. (1996). Scenarios. Special Wired Edition, January.
63. Wilson, I. (1998). Mental maps of the future: an intuitive logics approach to scenarios. Learning from the future: Competitive foresight scenarios, 81-108.