Subject Areas : General
habibollah tataeian 1 * , ali birang 2 , alinaghi khrazi 3 , amir nazemi 4
1 - Allameh Tabataba’I University
2 -
3 - Tehran University
4 -
Keywords:
Abstract :
1. خزایی، س، جلیلوند، م، نصرالهی وسطی، ل.(1392). بررسی نظری روش تحلیل لایهای علتها در حوزه آیندهپژوهی. مطالعات آیندهپژوهی. 2(6)
2. خليل،ط. (1381) ، مديريت تكنولوژي (رمز موفقيت در رقابت و خلق ثروت)، تهران:انتشارات پيام متن وابسته به مركز تكنولوژي نيرو.
3. علامی، ع، قاسمی برقی، ر.(1391). ترسیم برنامه آینده دانشگاه علوم پزشکی: رویکرد سناریو پردازی. گامهای توسعه در آموزش پزشکی، مجله مرکز مطالعات و توسعه آموزش پزشکی. 9(1). ص 101 تا 97.
4. کوثری، س.(1391). درآمدی بر رویکردها و تکنیکهای سناریونویسی، مطالعات آیندهپژوهی، 1(4). اول، ص 73-96.
5. لیام فهی، رابرت ام راندال، مترجم: مسعود منزوی (1392). یادگیری از آینده، سناریوهای آینده نگاری رقابتی، موسسه آموزش و تحقیقاتی صنایع دفاعی، مرکز آینده پژوهی علوم و فناوری های دفاعی.
7. Bergman, J.-P. (2005). “Supporting Knowledge Creation and Sharing in the Early Phases of the Strategic Innovation Process”, Acta Universitatis Lappeenrantaesis 212, 180 p.
8. Berkhout, F., & Hertin, J. (2002). Foresight futures scenarios. Greener Management International, 2002(37), 37-52.
9. Bishop, P. (2001). A yardstick too far?. foresight, 3(3), 163-167.
10. Bradfield, R. Wright, G. Burt, G. Cairns, G. van der Heijden, K. (2005). “The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning,” Futures, Vol. 37, pp. 795-812
11. Chermack, T. J. (2003). A theory of scenario planning, doctoral dissertation, faculty of the graduate school of the university of minnesota.
12. Chermack, T., J & Nimon, K. (2013). Drivers and outcomes of scenario planning: a canonical correlation analysis. European Journal of Training and Development, 37(9), 811-834.
13. Coates, F.J. (2000): Scenario Planning, in: Technological Forecasting and Social Change 65, 115-123.
14. Coyle, G.(2004). “Practical Strategy: Structured Tools and Techniques”, Glasgow: Pearson Education Ltd., 308 p.
15. Dammers, E. (2000). Leren van de toekomst; over de rol van scenario's bij strategische beleidsvorming.
16. Elkington, J., & Trisoglio, A. (1996). Developing realistic scenarios for the environment: Lessons from Brent Spar. Long Range Planning, 29(6), 762-769.
17. ETTE (2002): Focus in the Futureof Vocational Education and Training, Melbourne, 2002
18. Fahey, L., Randell, R. (1998): Learning from the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios, New York, in: Ratcliffe, J. (ed) (1999).
19. Georgantzas, N. C., & Acar, W. (1995). Scenario-driven planning: learning to manage strategic uncertainty. Praeger.
20. Godet, M. (1987). Scenarios and strategic management: Prospective et planification stratégique.
21. Godet, M., & Roubelat, F. (1996). Creating the future: the use and misuse of scenarios. Long range planning, 29(2), 164-171.
22. Götze, U. (1991). Szenario-Technik in der strategischen Unternehmensplanung. Wiesbaden: Dt. Univ.
23. Huss, W. R., & Honton, E. J. (1987). Scenario planning—what style should you use?. Long range planning, 20(4), 21-29.
24. Huss, W. R., & Honton, E. J. (1987). Scenario planning—what style should you use?. Long range planning, 20(4), 21-29.
25. Inayatullah, S. (1996). Methods and epistemologies in futures studies. The knowledge base of futures studies, 1, 186-203.
26. Inayatullah, S. (2009). Questioning scenarios. Journal of futures studies,13(3), 75-80.
27. Johnson G. & Scholes, K.(2002). “ Exploring Corporate Strategy”, Glasgow: Pearson Education Ltd, 585 p.
28. Kleiner, A. (1999): Scenario Practice, written for the Whole Earth Quarterly, to be published in 1999 and submitted in: http://stage.itp.nyu.edu/scenario/overview.html, 24.01.2004, 1999
29. Maleska, P. (1995): The Futures Field of Research, in: Futures Research Quarterly, vol. 11, no. 1, 1995 .
30. Martelli, A. (2001): Scenario Building and Scenario Planning: State of the Art and Prospects of Evolution, published on the summer 2001 issues of the Future Research Quarterly, in: http://www.antoniomartelli.com/html/articoli/scen_building.asp, 09.04.2004, 2001.
31. Mason, D. H. (1998). Scenario planning: Mapping the paths to the desired future. In L. Fahey & R. Randall, (Eds.), Learning From the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios,pp. 109-121. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
32. Mietzner, D., & Reger, G. (2005). Advantages and disadvantages of scenario approaches for strategic foresight. International Journal of Technology Intelligence and Planning, 1(2), 220-239.
33. Millett, S. M. (1988). How scenarios trigger strategic thinking. Long Range Planning, 21(5), 61-68.
34. Neilson, R. E., & Wagner, C. J. (2000). Strategic scenario planning at CA International. Knowledge Management Review, 12, 4-21.
35. Noonan, P. S., & Tenaglia, M. S. (1998). How information technology helps scenarios advance from consensus to decisiveness. Learning from the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios, 384-401.
36. Phelps, R., Chan, C., & Kapsalis, S. C. (2001). Does scenario planning affect performance? Two exploratory studies. Journal of Business Research,51(3), 223-232.
37. Piirainen, K., Kortelainen, S., Elfvengren, K. and Tuominen, M. (2006), ‘‘A framework for utilizing group support systems in scenario process’’, Proceedings of the Frontiers of E-business Research Conference, Tampere.
38. Piirainen,k., Kortelainen ,S., Elfvengren,K., Tuominen,M.(2010),”A scenario approach for assessing new business concepts”, Management Research Review ,Vol. 33 No. 6, pp. 635-655.
39. Porter, M. E. (1985). Competitive advantage: creating and sustaining superior performance. New york.
40. Ralston, B. & Wilson, I. 2006. “The Scenario-Planning Handbook: A Practitioner’s Guide to Developing and Using Scenarios to Direct Strategy in Today’s Uncertain Times,” Crawfordsville IN, Thomson/South-Western, 256 p.
41. Ratcliffe, J. (2000). Scenario building: a suitable method for strategic property planning?. Property Management, 18(2), 127-144.
42. Ratcliffe, J. (2003). Scenario planning: An evaluation of practice. Futures Research Quarterly, 19(4), 5-26.
43. Ringland, G., & SCHWARTZ, P. P. (1998). Scenario planning: managing for the future. John Wiley & Sons.
44. Robertson, J. (1980). The sane alternative. River Basin Publishing Company.
45. Schriefer, A. (1995). Getting the most out of scenarios: Advice from the experts. Planning Review, 23(5), 33-35.
46. Schwartz, P. (1996). The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World (Currency Doubleday, New York).
47. Shoemaker, P. J. H. (1995). Scenario planning: A tool for strategic thinking. Sloan Management Review 37(2), 25-40.
48. Shoemaker, P. J. H. (1998). Twenty common pitfalls in scenario planning. In L. Fahey & R. Randall, (Eds.), Learning From the Future: Competitive Foresight
49. Slaughter, R. (1995). The foresight principle. London: Adamantine.
50. Slaughter, R. (2000). Futures tools and techniques. Futures Study Centre.
51. Slaughter, R. A. (1996). The knowledge base of futures studies as an evolving process. Futures, 28(9), 799-812.
52. Sohail, I. (2002). Reductionism or layered complexity, the future of future studies. Futures, 34(3-4), 295-302.
53. Steinmüller, K. (1997). Grundlagen und Methoden der Zukunftsforschung: Szenarien, Delphi, Technikvorausschau. SFZ.
54. Tenaglia, M., & Noonan, P. (1992). Scenario-based strategic planning: A process for building top management consensus. Planning Review, 20(2), 12-19.
55. Van der Heijden, K. (2004). Can internally generated futures accelerate organizational learning?. Futures, 36(2), 145-159.
56. Van der Heijden, K. (2011). Scenarios: the art of strategic conversation. John Wiley & Sons.
57. Van Notten, P. W., Rotmans, J., Van Asselt, M. B., & Rothman, D. S. (2003). An updated scenario typology. Futures, 35(5), 423-443.
58. Varum, A and Melo,C. (2010). “Directions in scenario planning literature – A review of the past decades”.Futures 42, p.p 355–369.
59. Wack, P. (1985). Scenarios: The gentle art of re-perceiving, Harvard Business School. Unpublished manuscript.
60. Walsh,P.R.(2005). “environmental change by adding scenario planning to the strategy reformulation equation”.Guildford, UK Management Decision. Vol. 43 No. 1, pp. 113-122.
61. Warfield, J. (1996). An overview of futures methods. Artículos especializados.
62. Wilkinson, L. (1996). Scenarios. Special Wired Edition, January.
63. Wilson, I. (1998). Mental maps of the future: an intuitive logics approach to scenarios. Learning from the future: Competitive foresight scenarios, 81-1